We have interviewed vaccine experts from academia, industry, and government, to generate estimates for the probabilities of success and timelines for COVID-19 vaccines. We have aggregated these inputs and are releasing them soon in a paper. These findings have been used as inputs for a model we are creating that we hope can estimate timelines for success, as well as identify bottlenecks in both R&D and manufacturing. People will also be able to test these assumptions with their own inputs.
In this event, organized as part of a collaboration with Ariadne Labs, we will outline our results, discuss their implications, and highlight how you can use our model to generate your own estimates for how long it will take to find a COVID-19 vaccine that is safe and efficacious.
