#systemdynamics #systemsthinking #covid #covid19 #modeling #webinar #paneldiscussion
Mohammad Jalali (Harvard University) moderates a panel discussion session with Q&As providing a big picture overview of Covid-19 modelling activities taking place in different modelling communities while exploring the question of what makes a Covid-19 model useful with panellists Jeroen Struben (emylon business school), Hazhir Rahmandad (MIT Sloan), Jack Homer (Homer Consulting), and Navid Ghaffarzadegan (Virginia Tech).
Jeroen
9:21 – 9:33 Herd immunity not feasible
10:05 – 10:20 Dynamics for Longer-term high-level strategies
21:11 – 21:35 it is hard to recover once testing capacity falls behind
Hazhir
27:21 – 27:50 SD model confidence not based only on fit to data
29:30 – 29:50 herd immunity not close or viable
31:19 – 32:15 trade-off between social interactions and deaths
33:20 – 33:43 Available simulation to test policies
Jack
35:32 – 35:48 SD is very evidence-based
41:01 – 41:42 SD models can be better at projections than others due to endogenous behaviour
45:25 – 46:00 US death projections based on best and worst scenarios
Navid
55:23 – 55:45 policies synergy and tipping points in complex systems
58:17 – 58:37 systems science reflection
Q&As
1:00:14 -1:00:23 Jack on useful model: context dependent
1:02:05 – 1:02:35 Hazhir on models forecast failure
1:11:07 – 1:11:35 model prediction and society impact
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