Rapid risk assessment: Increased transmission of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK. #eudebates #Covid_19 #coronavirus #Corona #COVD19 #Health #COVID #vaccine
Epidemiological developments
COVID-19 case notification rates have increased steadily across the EU/EEA and the UK since August 2020, but this is not having the same impact in all countries. In several countries the observed upsurge correlates with increased testing rates and intense transmission among individuals between 15 and 49 years of age. In such countries most detections concern mild or asymptomatic cases. However, in a number of other countries, the upsurge coincides with high or increasing notification rates in older individuals and, consequently, an increased proportion of hospitalised and severe cases. The observed increased transmission levels indicate that the non-pharmaceutical interventions in place have not achieved the intended effect, either because adherence to the measures is not optimal or because the measures are not sufficient to reduce or control exposure. In addition, the vulnerability of the population to infection remains high, as available data from seroprevalence studies suggest that the level of immunity in the population is 15% in most areas within the EU/EEA and the UK. The current epidemiological situation in many countries is concerning as it poses an increasing risk of infection for vulnerable individuals (individuals with risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease, such as the elderly) and healthcare workers, particularly in primary care, and calls for targeted public health action.
What is the risk being assessed in this update?
In this update, we analyse the risk posed to the general population, vulnerable individuals, and healthcare provision by the current increase in COVID-19 case notification rates observed in the EU/EEA and the UK.
In countries observing stable and low notification rates, and low test positivity, the risk of COVID-19 for the general population and for healthcare provision is low, based on a low probability of infection and low impact of the disease. Regarding vulnerable individuals, the overall risk is moderate based on a low probability of infection and very high impact of the disease.
In countries observing high or sustained increase in notification rates, or high test positivity, but with high testing rates and transmission occurring primarily in young individuals, the risk of COVID-19 is moderate for the general population and for healthcare provision, based on a very high probability of infection and low impact of the disease. However, the risk of COVID-19 is very high for vulnerable individuals, based on a very high probability of infection and very high impact of the disease.
In countries observing high or sustained increase in notification rates, or high test positivity, and an increasing proportion of older cases, and/or high or increasing COVID-19 mortality, the risk of COVID-19 is high for the general population, based on a very high probability of infection and moderate impact of the disease.
However, the risk of COVID-19 is very high for vulnerable individuals, based on a very high probability of infection and very high impact of the disease.
Options for response
Preparing for a scenario of widespread transmission – Several countries appear to be now progressing from limited local community transmission towards sustained community transmission. This requires a strong response, focused on both containment and mitigation measures. Geographic areas that did not experience widespread transmission during the first wave may have a higher level of population susceptibility and be less prepared to address the increasing demand for healthcare. Therefore, public health efforts should focus on strengthening healthcare capacity to manage potentially high numbers of COVID-19 patients.
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Testing strategies – Testing strategies have evolved over the course of the epidemic and should now focus on more widespread testing in the community, prevention of nosocomial transmission, rapid identification and containment of outbreaks and identification of infectious cases to prevent further transmission. Easy access to testing and timeliness of testing is critical for the effectiveness of measures such as contact tracing and isolation of cases.
Contact tracing – Rapid identification, testing regardless of symptoms, and quarantine of high-risk contacts remains one of the most effective measures to reduce transmission. ECDC also recommends the testing of low-risk exposure contacts regardless of symptoms in high-risk settings (e.g. nursing homes), to enable early identification of secondary cases and initiate further contact tracing.
