COVID-19

Coronavirus: Whitty and Vallance faced 'herd immunity' backlash, emails show

Coronavirus: Whitty and Vallance faced ‘herd immunity’ backlash, emails show

As the UK introduces fresh restrictions on social contact to curb the spread of coronavirus, controversy continues to rage about whether the government had initially considered trying a very different approach. At the start of the pandemic, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, spoke about “herd immunity” – the idea that once enough of a population had been exposed to the virus, they would build up natural immunity to it. Sir Patrick and the government have both insisted this was never official policy. The government also denies there was any delay in locking down the country, as some critics have suggested. Emails obtained by the reveal the alarm among the government’s top scientific advisers at the reaction to Sir Patrick’s words. In one email from March, Sir Patrick asks for help to “calm down” academics who have expressed anger at his repeated references to herd immunity and the delays in announcing a lockdown. The material, obtained by the via a Freedom of Information Act request, consists of every email sent by Sir Patrick and chief medical officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty, from the start of February to the start of June, containing the words “herd immunity”. There is no reference in any email until after 13 March, when Sir Patrick discussed herd immunity in a number of media interviews. “Our aim,” he told Radio 4’s Today programme that morning, is to “try and reduce the peak – not suppress it completely, also because most people get a mild illness, to build up some degree of herd immunity whilst protecting the most vulnerable”. To many, his words appeared an unequivocal endorsement of herd immunity. They also appeared to explain the government’s reluctance to order the kind of lockdowns and social distancing measures that were already in place in many other countries, despite cases increasing and worrying scenes in hospitals in Italy. Speaking to Sky News on the same day, Sir Patrick talked about not suppressing the virus completely, to help avoid “a second peak,” and also to “allow enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune to this”. When asked how much of the British population would need to contract the virus for herd immunity to become effective, he calmly replied “probably around 60%”. With an approximate 1% case fatality rate, the interviewer responded, that would mean “an awful lot of people dying”. At the time, there was no strong evidence that being infected by coronavirus would result in long-lasting immunity. The following day, a group of more than 500 academics published a joint letter, criticising the lack of social distancing restrictions imposed by the government, adding that “going for ‘herd immunity’ at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put the NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary”. In an email to Sir Mark Walport, the UK’s former chief scientific adviser, discussing the scientists’ letter, Sir Patrick suggests the message in response should be “herd immunity is not the strategy. The strategy is to flatten the curve… and to shield the elderly… As we do this we will see immunity in the community grow”. Sir Patrick appears clearly rattled by the backlash to his use of the phrase. In response to an email titled “Covid-19 and herd immunity”, from an academic, he writes brusquely “No it is NOT the plan”. He does not, however, explain his previous references to herd immunity. On the same weekend, he writes to a colleague, “anything you can do to calm our academic friends down over herd immunity would be greatly appreciated”. Sir Mark Walport told the he believed the interviews had been misunderstood. He suggested what Sir Patrick had meant when saying it was not desirable to completely suppress the virus, was that it would be so “draconian and difficult to do that it would not be achievable”. Others, however, have suggested, despite the denials, that “herd immunity” was indeed the strategy for a period of time. The first public use of the term by a UK official appears to be in a interview on 11 March with Dr David Halpern, chief executive of the government-owned Behavioural Insights Team, known as the “nudge unit”, and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage). He told the : “You’ll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically don’t catch …
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