Abstract:
The response to the global pandemic of COVID-19 has been influenced to a large extend by mathematical modelling. The models have produced variations in their predictions and at times causing panic in the general population. This has raised questions that have the potential of influencing the uptake of mathematical models as tools for decision making. In this talk, we discuss some of the main reasons why the predictions differ. We discuss a number of models that have been used to model COVID-19 to date, globally and relative to the South African context. We intend to generate debate on the role of mathematical modelling to the current ongoing pandemic in South Africa considering the different model outcomes with respect to the predictions. We also discuss why the differences in the model structures, modelling methodologies, data quality and fields of expertise impact model predictions.
Speaker bio:
Farai Nyabadza (FN) graduated with Master of Science Degree in Mathematics (Modelling) from the University of Zimbabwe (UZ) in 1998 and Doctorate of Philosophy (PhD) in mathematical modelling of infectious diseases in 2003 from the University of Botswana (UB). He is currently a Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Johannesburg (UJ), whose research interest involve the applications of dynamical systems to infectious disease dynamics, substance abuse and other biological systems. FN is the current Deputy HoD, Applied Mathematics at UJ. FN was the Biomathematics Program coordinator at the University of Stellenbosch (2009-2018). He has successfully supervised 8 PhD students and 51 MSc students. He has also written three academic books and has a significant number of collaborations globally. He has reviewed a number of journal articles for national and international journals. He is a member of SAMS, SAMSA and SMB. He is the former President of the Southern Africa Mathematical Sciences Association, a regional body that thrives to develop Mathematical Sciences in the Southern African region.
