Read full article here:
Dr. Tom Frieden, an infectious disease physician, was director of the CDC from 2009 to 2017 during the H1N1, Ebola, and Zika emergencies. He is President and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives (an initiative of Vital Strategies) and Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations. Twitter: @DrTomFriedenThe premise is that if COVID-19 infection protects at least some people from reinfection for some time, vaccination (because vaccines rarely out-perform the bodys own immune reaction), proof of immunity that could allow freer travel, and resumption of many stalled economic and social activities may be possible. Meanwhile, the US is continuing to lose the battle against the virus. COVID-19 is spreading in most of the US at rates too high for effective contact tracing, too high for safe in-person schooling, and too high for robust economic recovery. that between 30 and 60 million people in the US have been infected since the outbreak began10-20% of the population. COVID-19 is now the third leading cause of death in the U. S. There are likely between 100,000 to 500,000 new infections a day. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimatesBut can herd immunity result from 20-30% infection, as some misguided academics suggested recentlyfar lower than the usual estimate of 60-80% infection? Dont count on it. Some communities already have a 50% infection rate or higher — this would be impossible if herd immunity kicked in at a 20-30% infection rate!Its not either-orLike other oversimplifications open or closed businesses, droplets vs. aerosols herd immunity is a continuum, not an on-off phenomenon. When more people are immune, infection spreads more slowly. But because spread is uneven, many communities remain vulnerable even if a high proportion of the population has been infected. Herd immunity, then, is not protection for alleven if lots of people have been infected. During a large COVID-19 outbreak
